The propensity of consumers to take installment loans is increasing. At the same time, however, Germans want to buy slightly less consumer goods in the coming year than before. The trend is indicated by the consumer loan index of the banking association . It is made up of consumers’ propensity to spend and the willingness to finance for the next twelve months.
In the current autumn forecast, the index reaches 112 points, signaling a constant demand for consumer finance. An index value of 100 means that a stable development is imminent, starting from 125 the credit use increases significantly and from 150 even strongly.
However, if one looks at the sub-index of the tendency to finance
It becomes clear that the Germans are more willing to take out a loan than last year. Because the index reached 124 points, the highest since its introduction in the spring of 2011, when he started with 103 points. The banking association also interprets the increase as an indication that there is greater affinity among consumers for the financing of purchases. The increase is mainly due to the higher financing propensity for used cars (143 points) as well as furniture and kitchens (131 points). In most other categories, the propensity to finance by credit remained constant, while it even declined on vacation trips. Here the index value was 82 points.
However, the propensity to buy has declined slightly
The partial index value for this is 91 points. In particular, new cars with 63 points and furniture and electronics with 70 points are less frequently on the consumer list than before. Other spending remains stable as consumers continue to plan renovations (110 points) and vacation (120 points).
The acceptance of installment loans plays an important role for the economy
Emphasizes the banking association: “Given the crisis-induced consumer restraint of the trade is now dependent on financing offers to continue to sell goods,” said association chief Peter Wacket at the presentation of the autumn forecast.
The fact that the willingness to leverage consumers has increased is probably mainly due to the historically low interest rates . In addition, the increased willingness may be an indication of growing inflation expectations. Thus, the repayment of an installment loan can be facilitated by an inflationary trend. Of course, it is extremely uncertain whether there will be any widespread inflation at all and whether this will occur within the usual time frame for consumer financing.
Not surprisingly, however, is the decline in the propensity to buy
The euro crisis and the slowing economy in Germany certainly contribute to the fact that many households are initially postponing major purchases and awaiting further development.